Paul Pukite's climate and geosciences sites
The results repository consists of multiple linear regression models of monthly oceanic climate indices (CI) and atmospheric QBO, applying annual modulated tidal forcing. Selected SLH models are included in the CI set, such as Brest, Honolulu, Ft. Denison, with many other SLH sites featured -- all the data from a PSMSL repository. The model itself is adapted from the book Mathematical GeoEnergy (Wiley/AGU, 2018), where a biennial modulation was introduced -- the adapted model features a quadrennial modulation as well.
This specific page is dedicate to providing cross-validated (CV) results across the collection of time-series (20 climate indices and 130 SLH sets). The data is filtered to remove the annual cycle and is detrended. The cross-validation essentially trains on a given interval of a time-series, and then an excluded area is used as test interval. So an identifier such as 0.4-0.5 indicates that the fractional span 0.4-0.5 of the entire time-series is used as a test/validation interval and the outer enclosing region is used for training. When this was initially created on 9/1/2025, there were 3000 CV results on time-series that averaged around 100 years (~1200 monthly readings/set) so over 3 million data points.
0.5-0.6 test quad | 0.7-0.8 test quad | biennial
longer test interval
0.6-0.8 test quad | biennial
0.3-0.6 test best fit
longer test interval
0.6-0.8 test quad | biennial
0.3-0.6 test best fit
times spans between 75 and 100 years
0.45-0.75 test differential | non-differential